2015年ACCA考试《P4高级财务管理》知识辅导3

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        WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS AND INDIVIDUALS?

　　For countries where austerity measures are imposed there is likely to be a reduction in economic activity and a reduction in both government and private sector jobs and hence an increase in unemployment. Equally the need to abide by such austerity measures is likely to lead to higher or additional taxes and reduced government spending. In this environment it will be hard to restart economic growth.

　　Furthermore, countries for which the Euro is at too high a value will continue to suffer a lack of competitiveness. It will be a difficult task for these countries to rebuild competitiveness without the option to devalue their currency.

　　As the economies of all the European nations are intertwined the reduction in demand in one or a few countries will impact on the whole of Europe and beyond.

　　As such, there is a risk of a deflationary slump within Europe and this would only be made worse if there were significant defaults which resulted in the much feared contagion.

　　In economic circumstances such as these the ability of companies to borrow may be curtailed. Even individuals remaining in employment may find that their overdraft and credit card limits are reduced.

　　Without wanting to sound over-dramatic the situation above is a recipe for further political and social unrest. The crisis has already caused the fall of a number of governments and more worryingly, from the point of view of the average suffering citizen, some of their replacements lack democratic credibility. Political extremism and nationalism could easily flourish and more government failures could arise. Military coups or other non-democratic forms of government could result. As I write tear gas is being used against rioters in Greece.

　　All of the above creates uncertainty, nervousness and swings in confidence and hence volatility in stock markets. For most of us this will simply exacerbate existing

　　problems although no doubt some lucky or clever individuals and organisations will benefit from such volatility.

　　Just because the UK is outside the Eurozone we cannot pretend that we are isolated from the problems in the Eurozone. Any defaults that occur are bound to impact on the UK banking sector and as Europe is our largest trading partner any reduction in economic activity caused by the crisis is bound to impact on economic activity in the UK. Furthermore, we have our own fiscal problems to deal with. However, at least within the UK we have the monetary policy flexibility to do what needs to be done given our own economic circumstances. Complacency though is not an option and we would do well to remember our own riots, in the summer of 2011, which many have blamed on the economic problems we face.

　　As a whole, Europe is not vastly indebted. If Europe works together then it should be possible to overcome the current debt crisis. But at times of economic hardship it is not easy for the nation states within Europe to put aside their own self-interest for the common good.

　　Action to reduce the harmful levels of uncertainty has been taken and a full blown crisis has so far been avoided. However, there is a need to ensure that the demands for austerity do not extinguish the potential for much needed growth. Too much austerity could condemn nations to persistent stagnation, the social cost of which should not be underestimated. Youth unemployment in Spain is currently at about 40% I believe. While within Europe there seems to be a political acceptance of these costs in support of the Euro project, a sovereign nation and its population are unlikely to want to bear such pain for long.

　　Students should aim to read a good newspaper on a regular basis in order to keep up with developments as they arise.

　　William Parrott is a lecturer at Kaplan Financial

　　Acknowledgement I thank Andrew Hollingworth of Holland Advisors London Ltd for his help and advice with the preparation of this article.

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