在11月18日早晨，高顿网校小编为您编辑了一篇业界评论文章：姚树洁分析称2014年沪港直通车与资本市场深化改革
　　摘要：下面是我为澳大利亚《The Conversation》网站撰写的英文文章。

　　11月17日开通的沪港直通车，有利于推动资本市场改革和人民币国际化，具体表现为：

　　（1）有利提高投资者对中国股市的信心；

　　（2）有利于资本市场的国际化和实体经济的可持续发展；

　　（3）有利于加强沪港两地的金融中心地位；

　　（4）有利于香港作为离岸人民币结算中心的地位；

　　（5）有利于人民币的国际化；

　　（6）交易总额上下为550亿人民币；上海单日可利用的买卖平衡额为130亿人民币，香港为107亿人民币。

　　Shanghai-HK Stock Exchanges Linkage and China's Capital Market Reform

　　By Shujie Yao, Professor of Economics, Nottingham and Congqing Universities

　　A direct link has been established between Hong Kong and Shanghai's stock exchanges. It means investors in Hong Kong can now buy shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange via their local brokers and vice versa. This is a milestone moment for China as it further opens the door to investors, liberalises its capital market and promotes the internationalisation of its currency, the RMB, through the two-way share dealings of investors in both markets.

　　Established in 1990, the Shanghai stock market has experienced a bamboo-dancing style development process in the last quarter century. After reaching a bubbly peak of 6,124 points in November 2007, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index crashed to its [lowest point two years later at 1,614 points](http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cpi/documents/briefings/briefing-41-chinese-stock-bubble.pdf). Although it has recovered now to more than 2,400 points, the Shanghai stock market has been highly volatile over the last seven years.

　　Investors in mainland China have more or less given up hope in its stock markets for various reasons (http://www.docin.com/p-474255192.html). Regulation has been inefficient or even counterproductive, government policies are poor as many poor performing state-owned enterprises were dressed up to be listed in a short period of time. There are also problems of cheating (e.g., insider trading, overstating profitability and performance, etc.), a lack of social responsibility on the part of listed companies, and irrational investor expectations.

　　To rebuild confidence in investors, China's regulator, the [China Securities Regulatory Commission](http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/csrc_en/), has tried implementing various reforms to improve market efficiency and firm performance, but the results have been disappointing.  This partly explains why in April 2014 China's premier, Li Keqiang, announced that the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges will be linked as a new reform effort to strengthen the Chinese capital market.

　　The total amount to be traded on this agreement will be capped at 550 billion RMB, or about 2% of China’s A-shares market value. There is no clear definition on who will be the eligible brokers in both sides, but it appears that any officially recognised broker is qualified to make deals. Investors will primarily be institutional, but private individuals are also allowed to trade provided each has a minimum account balance of half a million RMB.

　　The impact on China’s capital market and RMB internationalisation may be profound. It will accelerate the internationalisation of the RMB and will support Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore RMB settlement market in the world.

　　The new link will also enhance China’s ability to raise capital for the country's economic and social development, as well as improving the competitiveness of both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets in the world.

　　China has been gearing toward this since 2005 when the central government decided to liberalise the exchange rate of RMB in the hope that it will eventually become a world currency. In addition, poor stock market performance and the lack of investor confidence mean that people in China do not have a reliable investment channel for their savings, leading to low economic efficiency for the entire national economy.  It is hoped that the link will not only help RMB to be more recognized globally but also restore investor confidence in the domestic stock markets.

　　Finally, the legal and regulatory systems as well as the professional practices of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will soon be adopted by its Shanghai counterpart. This will help to restore people’s confidence and investment desire in the mainland stock markets. And, all in all the position of Shanghai and Hong Kong as two major financial centres in China, Asia and the world will be strengthened.

　　This trading mechanism will open a huge window for China's currency to flow through the stock markets. In the long term, shares in Hong Kong may even be priced in RMB, instead of Hong Kong dollars. In addition, foreign investors will be able to gain access to the Chinese capital market through Hong Kong, implying that holding RMB will not be dissimilar to holding British pounds or US dollars.

　　The initial reaction to the news of this new trading mechanism has been largely positive in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The Shanghai Composite index has risen more than 10% in the last two months. The performance in Hong Kong has not been as spectacular, but it has also enjoyed a clear upward trend.

　　Although only time can tell the exact impact of this new arrangement, it can be predicted that by allowing the two-way trading of shares between Shanghai and Hong Kong, China is determined and will be able to further liberalize its capital market and make RMB become a global currency in the foreseeable future.

 

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